Recommendation
This paper is the first research report of the One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence (AI), based at Stanford University – a long-term research project dedicated to AI technologies and their effects on people, communities and society. High-caliber AI experts describe how recent innovations and likely developments will affect society by 2030. They also provide practical recommendations for AI-related policies. getAbstract believes that laypeople and expert readers alike will enjoy this meaty, but accessible report.
Take-Aways
- Artificial intelligence (AI) – once a predominantly academic pursuit – has in recent years enabled technological developments that reach deep into people’s everyday lives.
- In the near future, many more applications will emerge in which AI technology will work in conjunction with human beings.
- By 2030, autonomous trucks, “flying vehicles and personal robots” may become the norm.
- As labor will become less valuable in comparison with “intellectual capital,” many people may struggle to maintain a “socially acceptable standard of living.”
- Public policies should promote AI research and innovation, help people “adapt” and ensure that AI won’t institutionalize biases.
Summary
Artificial intelligence (AI) – once a predominantly academic pursuit – has in recent years enabled technological developments that reach deep into people’s everyday lives. In the near future, many more applications will emerge in which AI technology will work in conjunction with human beings, especially in the following eight “domains”:
- “Transportation” – Self-driving cars are just the beginning; by 2030, autonomous trucks and flying vehicles may become the norm.
- “Home/service robots” – Thanks to advances in chip technology, machine learning, language understanding and 3D sensors, robots will take on security, cleaning and delivery jobs.
- “Health care” – AI can boost health monitoring, assist in surgery, improve care for the elderly and aid clinical decision-making – but only if medical staff and patients come to trust AI applications.
- “Education” – Robots already teach kids programming and logical reasoning, and the military uses avatars to train personnel. In the near future, AI will likely support teachers in classrooms. Students will be able to pick up many skills in virtual realities.
- “Low-resource communities” – Data mining and machine learning can help governments identify and respond to health risks.
- “Public safety and security” – By 2030, fraud-detecting algorithms and “predictive policing” will support law enforcement.
- “Employment and workplace” – As labor will become less valuable in comparison with “intellectual capital,” many people may struggle to maintain a “socially acceptable standard of living.” But AI-induced changes may also create jobs and make many goods and services more affordable.
- “Entertainment” – Media companies will have enormous amounts of data about their customers. Unless consumers react, “media conglomerates” may fully determine what people get to see.
“Contrary to the more fantastic predictions for AI in the popular press, the study panel found no cause for concern that AI is an imminent threat to humankind.”
Public policies should promote AI research and innovation, help people “adapt” and ensure that AI will not institutionalize biases. AI can create wealth in entirely new ways. The public should debate how a majority of people can partake of that wealth.